It has to be Chuck Pagano. The last time a Ravens defensive co-ordinator left Baltimore to become a head coach with a rookie QB he went to AFC Championship games in his first two seasons.

He has a lot of talent on that defense, or more than he's given credit for. Don't be fooled by the fact that it's technically a 3-4, Suggs used to play with his hand in the dirt 90% of the time, and Freeney will too. With the addition of Cory Redding and Josh Chapman to Moala and Drake Nevis they have a talented, deep group on that line. With Angerer as the tackle machine in the middle, and Mathis as the alternative pass rushing threat, the linebackers could be alot worse. They also just signed the CFL's leading tackler, Jerrell Freeman, so he could be a sleeper going into the season. Tim Fugger, a 7th round pick, could be one of the steals of the draft as a productive, blue collar player at OLB. The secondary is a problem, but they have Antoine Bethea and Tom Zbikowski ready to step up as solid safeties, and that pass rush will protect the corners to some extent. Prior to 2011, CB was never a strength for the Ravens, so Pagano knows how to deal with this issue.

On offense, they have Bruce Arians to bring along Andrew Luck, but make no mistake, Luck is not going to be immediately asked to be the one man offense that Manning has been in the last few seasons. Excluding Luck and his backup of the future Chandler Harnish, the Colts spent an impressive 6 picks on offense in the draft. They'll also be bringing along their first two picks last year, Castonzo and Ijalana, as bookend tackles for the 1st overall pick. Samson Satele, capable of being a dominant centre, was one of the most underrated pickups in FA so far. His group at wideout is deep; experienced targets like Wayne and Collie will make things easier for Luck as he gets used to exciting new weapons like Fleener, Allen, Hilton and Brazill. One of the most ignored storylines of last season was Donald Brown's breakout year, averaging only just uner 4.8 yards a carry. He'll get more opportunities to convert his talent to big numbers this year, and the running back position is deep behind him with Delone Carter and Vick Ballard.

The Colts roster has undergone some huge improvements coming into this season, so they could well crank out nine wins even if Luck's rookie season isn't immediately Manning.

I'm aware that I've focused on upside here, so I'll add some problems that should undermine the other teams on this list, some of whom(especially Jacksonville and Kansas City) have tremendous upside aswell.

The Jags have failed to properly address their concerns on the offensive line. With the not ignorable risk of their two most threatening offensive weapons, Mojo and new wideout Robinson, succumbing to injury, we could see a Jags offense that's even worse than last year as gabbert's development is further hampered by incompetence around him.

The Chiefs have great upside that I have earlier praised, but I want to undercut that here. Cassel is not a great QB, and has never put up wins without the help of elite coaching(BB in NE, Charlie Weis in his one good season at Kansas City), and struggles in both the athletic and mental aspects of his game. Their defense will crank out some wins, but I'd be surprised if they challenged in a tough division featuring Manning's Broncos and Rivers' Chargers.

The Rams were the worst team in the NFL last year. While the Colts were the victims of a mental collapse, the Rams lost the games they lost because they didn't have enough talent to win them, and went into the offseason with more holes on their roster than any other team. This was demonstrated by their strategy going into this year's draft. The repeated trade downs, and selection of project players like Brian Quick and Michael Brockers, strongly suggest that Jeff Fisher's own astute judgement of his new team is that they are nowhere near ready to win now.

The Dolphins are another rebuilding team, as evidenced by their decisions to draft a QB Project 8th overall, trade Brandon Marshall and revamp a very strong defense. The decision to move from a 3-4 to a hybrid was one that was clearly taken to establish their ethos for the future at the expense of their ability to win now. Joe Philbin was a success at Green Bay, but he had elite QB play and a deep group of receivers. At Miami he will be asked to build aound QBs in Moore and Tannehill who can play at a high level, but will need careful husbanding and protection, and who will thrive most when Miami focuses its identity on a mauling offensive line. Their transformation is unlikely to take less than a year.

The Raiders have released a lot of players, including both starting corners, from an 8-8 team and do not have either the money or the draft picks to adequately replace them. The hiring of not only a new coach, but an entirely new front office staff places the onus of the Raiders' future five years down the line. They have a talented enough roster to compete in a weaker division, but not in a tough AFC West.

The Bucs are another team whose ethos is being so radically altered that it is unlikely that they'll adjust fast enough to compete this year. In addition to being completely devoid of talent at cornerback if Talib is suspended or jailed, they still lack any real solution at middle linebacker, even if Foster and David develop into quality options as the outside LBs. While Nicks addressed one hole on their line, Trubelood remains a swinging gate at RT, so Freeman won't have much more time in the pocket this year than he did last year. It is unrealistic to expect Schiano to be Harbaugh mk.II, especially given he never had the sort of success at Rutgers that Harbaugh had at Stanford.